Launch of Dossier Cuba 21 No. 16 “Cuba 2024: opportunities and challenges”
January 31, 2024 – The outlook in Cuba for 2024 presents challenges and opportunities marked by various uncertainties and certainties, as expressed in the Dossier Cuba 21 No 16 by historian and political analyst Juan Antonio Blanco. Cuba is at a historical crossroads, facing two possible transitions: one towards democracy, driven by diverse forces in search of prosperity with freedom, and another, which advocates for an autocratic model with a limited market economy or even for the Chinese model of Market Stalinism. The future projection of Cuban society remains uncertain.
In his assessment, Blanco highlights what he believes is the main challenge to move towards an open, democratic, and prosperous society, based on the rule of law and a free market. The urgency lies in reaching a consensus on a roadmap among different sectors and social actors to channel demands towards changing the regime of governance, which is currently led by an oligarchy facing a tsunami of growing popular dissatisfaction.
It is undeniable that 2024 begins with an extremely fragile level of governability. The regime of governance has collapsed, and the power elite is reluctant to recognize reality. Diverse sectors of society, from peasants to state workers, and entrepreneurs, are expressing their discontent and stirring the waters of a system no longer capable or willing to provide for social basic needs.
The possibility of social explosions of considerable magnitude is high, with a generalized consensus on the unviability of the status quo and the incapacity of the current elites to reverse the situation. Although new social explosions are highly probable, the success of the democratizing forces in reaching power this year depends on processes of concertation between different social sectors interested in change.
The weight of pessimism about the ability to defeat the totalitarian regime is nurtured by the State through its propaganda and an influence machinery that seeks to perpetuate the status quo. The alliance with Russia adds new layers of uncertainty, exposing the country to possible additional external sanctions and national security challenges.
Cuba, more than a dictatorship, stands as a threat to the security and stability of the United States, the West and Latin American democracies with its alliance to the new “axis of evil”. In this context, the urgency of defeating totalitarianism and strategically connecting Cuba to the global transformation of the Information Age becomes crucial.
The future transnational integration of the diaspora and Cubans on the island in a codependent development project – once democracy, the rule of law and a market economy are established – presents an exceptional opportunity to reverse the current disaster and forge a promising future in a very short time.