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Summary
The Dossier “The Useless Mega Fraud of Nicolás Maduro” published by Cuba Siglo 21 analyzes Venezuela’s presidential elections in 2024, denounced as fraudulent and profoundly antidemocratic. Throughout the text, it exposes how the government of Nicolás Maduro manipulated the entire electoral process to perpetuate itself in power, the evident popular rejection and the deep crisis the country is going through.
Venezuela is in an unprecedented economic, social and political crisis, with extreme poverty levels, hyperinflation, and a massive emigration of citizens in search of better living conditions, ranked as the largest emigration in Latin America.
Maduro has resorted to fraud in several previous elections. After the death of Hugo Chavez in 2013, he won with a narrow lead aided by the Cuban regime. In 2018, another electoral fraud kept him in power, leading to the proclamation of Juan Guaidó as interim president with the support of more than 50 countries. In 2020, Maduro controlled the parliamentary elections, ending Guaidó’s interim presidency. But, the 2024 election was different due to the opposition’s strategy, which included “citizen commanders” and the unexpected cooperation of the military at the ballot centers.
Maduro used numerous tactics to ensure his victory. Among the strategies mentioned are the disqualification of opposition candidates, censorship of the media, and the use of State resources for the campaign of the ruling party. The lack of independent international observers and the intervention of the National Electoral Council (CNE), which is under government control, are especially highlighted.
Once the elections were held, Maduro declared himself the winner with an unrealistic percentage of the vote, which generated widespread rejection both inside and outside the country. The democratic nations of the world, as well as international organizations, condemned the electoral fraud, but the Maduro government ignored the criticism and continued to cling to power.
The impact of electoral fraud on Venezuelan society is devastating. If the fraud is consolidated, the despair of the population, already suffering under an authoritarian and corrupt regime, will increase. The lack of legitimacy of the government, combined with the continuing economic and social crisis, has left Venezuela in a situation of total collapse, with little prospect of improvement in the short term.
Maduro uses in his discourse an incendiary and populist leftist rhetoric to cover up all the illicit activities through which he enriches himself and his cronies, including the military leadership of the army and political leaders of his trusted entourage. This reality calls into question the ideological legitimacy of those who continue to justify their support for Chavismo for alleged political, ideological and economic reasons, despite the overwhelming evidence of corruption and links to drug trafficking.
The document concludes with a reflection on the futility of the fraud perpetrated by Maduro. Despite the effort to undemocratically secured his power, his government faces a crisis of legitimacy both inside and outside the country. Repression and authoritarianism have failed to solve Venezuela’s structural problems, and the country’s future remains uncertain.
The final analysis suggests that the struggle for Venezuela’s future is far from over. Internal resistance and international pressure could eventually force a change,
Meanwhile, the Venezuelan people continue to suffer the consequences of a regime that has lost all connection with reality and the needs of its people.
Conclusions
Maduro’s mega-fraud turned out to be useless. He lost and everybody knows it. However, his will to cling to power by blood and fire following Havana’s instructions has turned Venezuela into a neuralgic problem for regional and international stability. If Nicolás Maduro consummates the fraud he is trying to consolidate, it would undermine regional and international governance. Venezuela has become a narco-state with a platform for exporting drugs to multiple global destinations. To the US through Central America and Mexico, and to Europe through African routes.
Venezuela is today the regional operational platform of the Russians and their mercenaries Wagner[i] , of the Iranians and their terrorist tentacles of Hamas and Hezbollah, of the Chinese capital plunderers, of the Colombian narco-guerrillas[ii] , of the Mexican cartels and, of course, of their Cuban creators and puppeteers.
Politically it has become a dictatorship that persecutes political opponents, has destroyed its economy and has generated the largest emigration in the history of Latin America in the modern era[iii] , which has created multiple problems for neighboring countries and the US, and plays a destabilizing role through its military pressure in the Essequibo, on the border with Guyana[iv] .
Maduro’s domestic policy has generated a mega inflation that has been impossible to stop[v] , has sunk the oil industry, has caused the collapse of the nation’s energy matrix and its health system[vi],[vii] and water supply. He has plunged more than 90% of the Venezuelan population into poverty[viii] , and has ceded governance in some regions of the country to criminal groups linked to drug trafficking, mineral smuggling and human trafficking[ix] .
Maduro’s defiant, coup-plotting and fraudulent attitude undermines the credibility of the Latin American left[x],[xi] that may take the risk of continuing to support him, as well as peace and stability in the region. If Maduro has his way, million more Venezuelans would embark on a massive migration generating a gigantic stability problem in the region of unpredictable consequences, since no country is prepared for a contingency of such magnitude.
Maduro during all these years has proven to be immune to political pressures and those used by the US to persuade Maduro with positive incentives to step aside are not working.[xii] The secret pacts that the US has been said to be negotiating with Maduro[xiii] , if true, need extra-political pressure to persuade him that refusing to hand over the power he lost in the elections could have serious consequences. The example of how another narco-president, Noriega, was removed from power should keep him awake at night. If that is not happening, it is because too much and unnecessary emphasis has often been placed on denying that option. “Convincing” Maduro is not a task that can be accomplished with positive incentives alone. If anything, it requires, in a complementary way, potential “punishments” that are perceived as powerful and credible by the dictator and his entourage. Until Maduro feels the credible threat of such pressure on his head, he will continue to insist on the strategy of resisting at all costs.
Although the Venezuelan military leadership has publicly backed Maduro, it does not necessarily mean that the army supports the dictator. Proof of this was the help given by the military in charge of guarding the polling stations that made possible to collect the voting records that are now public and that have demonstrated to the world the gross fraud committed by Nicolas Maduro.
Countries such as Brazil, Colombia and Mexico instead of looking for new tricks to assist Maduro in calling for another election should ensure that he chooses an agreed process of peaceful transition of power before an escalation of violence occurs that raises the need -and legitimacy- to consider military action to end his reign of terror. The negative impact that Maduro and his dictatorship generated for Latin America is so great that it is leaving no other way out.
The victory of Edmundo Gonzalez over the dictator Nicolas Maduro has been overwhelming and resounding. It constitutes a true watershed in the history of Latin America. Once again it shows that no dictatorship can defeat the courage and intelligence of a united people. That is why the international community cannot allow a bloody and corrupt dictator to take away by force the victory obtained by the Venezuelan people at the ballot box. People who have exercised their legitimate right to choose their rulers despite the cheating, intimidation and political persecution of the opposition forces.
The gross and blatant fraud committed by Nicolas Maduro and his entourage shows the true genesis of these characters; they have been exposed before the world public opinion and the international community. Likewise, the regimes that support Maduro’s fraud and those that behind the scenes try to camouflage the colossal electoral crime he has committed are left in a bad light.
The international community today has a great responsibility to find a peaceful solution that unconditionally upholds the popular will expressed by the Venezuelan people at the ballot box. It is time to put an end to this opprobrious mafia regime to guarantee stability and peace in Venezuela and in the Latin American region.
References
[i] EL MUNDO. “Wagner’s traces in Maduro’s Venezuela”. Junio 27, 2023. https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2023/06/27/6499d0f1fc6c83b8758b45c1.html
[ii] INSIGHT CRIME. Colombian-Venezuelan guerrillas: the migration of war from Colombia to Venezuela. OCTOBER 2022. https://insightcrime.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Las-guerrillas-colombo-venezolanas-la-migracio%CC%81n-de-la-guerra-de-Colombia-hacia-Venezuela-InSight-Crime-Oct-2022.pdf
[iii] EL PAÍS. “”The Venezuelan exodus is the largest that Latin America has seen in modern times.””. June 19, 2021. https://elpais.com/internacional/2021-06-19/en-latinoamerica-hay-un-enfoque-humanitario-y-solidario-mas-fuerte-que-en-otras-regiones.html
[iv] Malamut, Carlos; Nuñez Castellano, Rogelio. “Venezuela: a regional and international problem”. REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO. April 5, 2024. https://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/analisis/venezuela-un-problema-regional-e-internacional/
[v] INFOBAE. “La inflación acumulada en Venezuela durante los primeros cinco meses del año trepó al 15,3 %”. June 6, 2024. https://www.infobae.com/venezuela/2024/06/06/la-inflacion-acumulada-en-venezuela-durante-los-primeros-cinco-meses-del-ano-trepo-al-153/
[vi] EL PAÍS. “La salud pública en Venezuela redujo en 70% su capacidad de respuesta desde 2016.” May 15 2023. https://elpais.com/internacional/2023-05-15/la-salud-publica-en-venezuela-redujo-en-70-su-capacidad-de-respuesta-desde-2016.html
[vii] REUTERS. “ANALYSIS-The collapse of the health system turns Venezuela’s vaccination campaign into an uphill battle.” February 12, 2021. https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN2AC1UE/
[viii] BBC NEWS MUNDO. “Extreme poverty now reaches 3 out of 4 Venezuelans, according to a new study”. September 30, 2021. https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-58755410
[ix] INSIGHT CRIME. “Smuggling Networks Supply Rampant Mining in Venezuela.” July 6, 2023. https://insightcrime.org/es/noticias/redes-contrabando-abastecen-mineria-desenfrenada-venezuela/
[x] NUEVATRIBUNA.ES. “La reflexión de la izquierda latinoamericana ante la tiranía de Maduro”. July 31 2024. https://www.nuevatribuna.es/articulo/global/reflexion-izquierda-latinoamericana-tirania-maduro/20240731092211229349.html
[xi] EL PAÍS. “Maduro, una puñalada a la izquierda” (Maduro, a stab to the left). August 6, 2024. https://elpais.com/america/opinion/2024-08-06/maduro-una-punalada-a-la-izquierda.html
[xii] Smith, Jake. “Biden Admin’s Approach Not Enough To Help Venezuela With Its Socialist Dictator Problem: Analysts.” August 12, 2023. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-admin-s-approach-not-enough-to-help-venezuela-with-its-socialist-dictator-problem-analysts/ar-AA1oEMur
[xiii] WSJ. “In Secret Talks, U.S. Offers Amnesty to Venezuela’s Maduro for Ceding Power.” August 11, 2024. https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/in-secret-talks-u-s-offers-amnesty-to-venezuelas-maduro-for-ceding-power-e22b4821
